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Accountability · Methodology v1.2

Performance Scorecards

How Nigeria's president and governors are performing — scored on a published rubric, every input cited, every formula public. Click any score to audit the exact data behind it.

📷 Heptagon, Wikimedia Commons, public domain

Public BetaUnder Review

This section is being converted from structural scaffolding into verified source-backed records. Treat unsourced fields as under review until each row displays a source link and confidence label. See our evidence standards and source-work roadmap.

v1.2 — published, open to correction

Methodology v1.2 — every weight, formula and grade boundary is published and open to correction. The presidential affordability score compares the inauguration-month baseline with dated household costs. Other pillars keep their own source dates and coverage labels.

President

1 card seeded · framework covers all Fourth-Republic presidents

President · since 29 May 2023

Bola Ahmed Tinubu

What can people afford since he took office?

Minimum-wage affordability · May 2023 → May 2026

Historical snapshot · reviewed 11 October 2026

Affordability /100

Worse than the baseline

50 = unchanged · higher = better

The legal monthly minimum wage rose from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000, but fuel and several foods rose faster. This score measures how that wage benchmark buys the same reported goods and journeys. It records outcomes during this presidency; it does not establish that every change was caused by the president.

Latest context · 8 October 2026

The World Bank reports stronger growth and a stabilised poverty rate, while elevated inflation continues to put pressure on household purchasing power. That newer assessment is shown separately from this May 2026 price snapshot.

World Bank Nigeria Development Update · 8 Oct 2026 ↗

Staples

51.9 /100

+7.9% purchasing power

20% of this score

Protein

45.1 /100

-18.0% purchasing power

20% of this score

Produce

40.2 /100

-32.8% purchasing power

20% of this score

Fuel

25.8 /100

-65.2% purchasing power

20% of this score

Transport

50.2 /100

+1.0% purchasing power

20% of this score

Before and after: audit every figure

NBS national average prices/fares; same-month comparison. Purchasing power uses the legal wage benchmark, not a measured average household income.
Item	May 2023	May 2026	Price change	Wage purchasing power
Brown beans, sold looseper kg	₦629.75 ↗	₦1,344.93 ↗	+113.6%	+9.3%
White garri, sold looseper kg	₦371.42 ↗	₦813.24 ↗	+119.0%	+6.6%
Boneless beefper kg	₦2,520.52 ↗	₦7,171.41 ↗	+184.5%	-18.0%
Tomatoesper kg	₦498.34 ↗	₦1,560.56 ↗	+213.2%	-25.5%
Onionsper kg	₦453.86 ↗	₦1,180.01 ↗	+160.0%	-10.3%
Yam tuberper kg	₦457.25 ↗	₦2,347.09 ↗	+413.3%	-54.5%
Petrol (PMS)per litre	₦238.11 ↗	₦1,596.25 ↗	+570.4%	-65.2%
Urban bus journeyper drop	₦649.59 ↗	₦1,431.25 ↗	+120.3%	+5.9%
Intercity bus journeyper person/drop	₦4,002.16 ↗	₦9,699.55 ↗	+142.4%	-3.7%

How this score works and what it covers

For each item, r = (₦70,000 ÷ May 2026 price) ÷ (₦30,000 ÷ May 2023 price). Each category uses the geometric mean of its item ratios. Category score = 100 × r ÷ (1 + r). The five categories receive equal weights. The final value is 42.64, rounded to 43 for display. An unchanged ratio of 1 scores 50; a deterioration scores below 50; an improvement scores above 50.

The category weights are editorial choices. The selected items are a partial benchmark, not a complete consumption basket or an official NBS welfare index. The minimum wage is a legal floor for covered employment; many Nigerians do not earn it, and this calculation does not assume every worker received the increase.

May 2023 is the inauguration-month average, not an exact 29 May price. May 2026 is the latest common reporting month verified for this comparison. These figures are not presented as October 2026 prices. Rice and bread were excluded because item definitions changed. Prices are compared directly; CPI indices across the rebasing are not spliced together.

Housing, electricity, jobs, poverty and personal security are not scored here without comparable sourced observations. The wider economic, governance and corruption-risk framework remains available below and carries its own source dates.

₦30,000 wage: FM Information, 18 Apr 2019 ↗₦70,000 wage: FM Information, 20 Sep 2024 ↗

Methodology v1.2 · Challenge a figure or suggest a better comparison.

Other presidential indicators and corruption-risk ledger

This separate framework includes historical source observations. Its composite is not the affordability score above; unavailable or unverified inputs remain unscored.

PresidentAPCIn Progress — incumbent

Bola Ahmed Tinubu

President, Federal Republic of Nigeria · 29 May 2023 – present

Record reviewed 2026-10-10 · Methodology v1.2

Under Review

Insufficient data for a composite

No overall score: all 3 pillars need verified inputs. The framework and the corruption-risk ledger below are published anyway — the card fills in as data arrives.

Headline inflation (CPI) · 30% of pillar

15.39%

National Bureau of Statistics — CPI, August 2026 (released 15 Sep 2026) · 2026-09-15

Formula: 100 − (CPI − 5) × 5 — anchored at the 5% single-digit target; every point above costs 5

100 − (15.39 − 5) × 5 = 48

Food inflation (CPI, YoY) · 20% of pillar

19.57% YoY

National Bureau of Statistics — CPI, August 2026 (released 15 Sep 2026) · 2026-09-15

Formula: 100 − (food CPI − 5) × 5 — same scale as headline; food & non-alcoholic beverages are the largest CPI contributor and the price signal households feel most directly

100 − (19.57 − 5) × 5 = 27. Down from 20.31% (Jul 2026) and 25.30% (Aug 2025).

Public debt trajectory (YoY change) · 20% of pillar

+9.4% YoY (₦166.79T total)

Debt Management Office — Total Public Debt, Q2 2026 (30 Jun 2026), via ThisDay · 2026-06-30

Formula: 100 − (YoY debt growth % × 5) — debt growing 20%+ YoY scores 0

₦152.40T (Jun 2025) → ₦166.79T (Jun 2026). 100 − 9.4 × 5 = 53

Real GDP growth (per-capita adjusted) · 15% of pillar

4.43% YoY (real)

NBS GDP report, Q2 2026 — via ThisDay (Reuters-confirmed); World Bank Oct 2026 forecast 4.3% · 2026-08

Formula: (growth % − 2.4) × 30, capped at 100 — nets out ≈2.4%/yr population growth (UN WPP 2024 / World Bank); growth that doesn’t outpace population scores poorly; 5.7%+ headline growth needed for full marks

v1.1 formula nets out population growth: (4.43 − 2.4) × 30 = 61. The old formula scored this 100.

Unemployment rate · 10% of pillar

Awaiting Source

Insufficient data — not scored, not guessed.

Under review: NBS has not published a 2026 Labour Force Survey; this figure is second-hand via MINILS and is excluded from scoring. ILO 1-hour employment definition applies.

Formula (when data arrives): 100 − (unemployment − 3) × 8 — anchored at 3%

FX stability (official–parallel premium) · 5% of pillar

≈4.2% premium (₦1,329.34 vs ₦1,385)

NFEM official ₦1,329.34/$ vs parallel ≈₦1,385 (9 Oct 2026), via The Trumpet · 2026-10-09

Formula: premium ≤3% → 100 · 3–5% → 80 · 5–10% → 55 · 10–20% → 30 · >20% → 10 — interim single measure; 12-month depreciation trend to be added in v1.2

Premium in the 3–5% band → 80. Interim single measure (see methodology).

Governors

2 cards seeded · framework covers all 36 governors + FCT minister

Same four scores, state-adapted indicators (IGR growth, domestic-debt trajectory, salary arrears, debt-service burden). Cards appear as verified state data (DMO, BudgIT, NBS) is ingested — nothing is scored from thin air.

GovernorAPCIn Progress — incumbent

Babajide Sanwo-Olu

Governor of Lagos State · 29 May 2019 – present

Record reviewed 2026-10-10 · Methodology v1.2

Grade B

Overall (partial — 3 of 3 pillars)

Provisional composite from 3 of 3 pillars — weights renormalised over scored pillars (economic 35% · governance 30% · corruptionRisk 35%). Missing pillars are shown as “insufficient data”, never guessed.

IGR growth (YoY) · 30% of pillar

Awaiting Source

Insufficient data — not scored, not guessed.

Lagos IGR ~₦1.77tn in 2025 is reported but the YoY growth rate is not verified.

Formula (when data arrives): YoY IGR growth % × 4, capped at 100 — 25%+ growth scores 100

Domestic debt trajectory (YoY change) · 30% of pillar

+14.8% YoY (₦1.195T domestic)

Debt Management Office — sub-national domestic debt, Q2 2026 (30 Jun 2026), via ThisDay · 2026-06-30

Formula: 100 − (YoY debt growth % × 5)

₦1.041T (Jun 2025) → ₦1.195T (Jun 2026); fell 0.8% QoQ from ₦1.205T (Q1 2026). 100 − 14.8 × 5 = 26

Salary / pension arrears · 20% of pillar

Awaiting Source

Insufficient data — not scored, not guessed.

Salary/pension arrears status not verified.

Formula (when data arrives): 100 − (months of arrears × 15) — zero arrears scores 100

Debt-service burden (% of budget) · 20% of pillar

₦591.86bn ≈ 13.3% of ₦4.44T budget

Lagos 2026 approved budget — debt-service provision (via Global Financial Digest) · 2026-01

Formula: ≤10% → 100 · 10–15% → 75 · 15–20% → 50 · 20–30% → 25 · >30% → 10

13.3% sits in the 10–15% band → 75

GovernorAPMIn Progress — incumbent

Seyi Makinde

Governor of Oyo State · 29 May 2019 – present

Record reviewed 2026-10-10 · Methodology v1.2

Under Review

Insufficient data for a composite

No overall score: all 3 pillars need verified inputs. The framework and the corruption-risk ledger below are published anyway — the card fills in as data arrives.

IGR growth (YoY) · 30% of pillar

Awaiting Source

Insufficient data — not scored, not guessed.

Oyo IGR growth rate not verified.

Formula (when data arrives): YoY IGR growth % × 4, capped at 100 — 25%+ growth scores 100

Domestic debt trajectory (YoY change) · 30% of pillar

Awaiting Source

Insufficient data — not scored, not guessed.

Q2 2026 domestic debt not in verified DMO releases on file. A partisan claim of ₦381.66B total debt (SharpEdgeNews, Oct 2026) is unverified and not scored.

Formula (when data arrives): 100 − (YoY debt growth % × 5)

Salary / pension arrears · 20% of pillar

Awaiting Source

Insufficient data — not scored, not guessed.

Salary/pension arrears status not verified.

Formula (when data arrives): 100 − (months of arrears × 15) — zero arrears scores 100

Debt-service burden (% of budget) · 20% of pillar

Awaiting Source

Insufficient data — not scored, not guessed.

Debt-service-to-budget ratio not verified.

Formula (when data arrives): ≤10% → 100 · 10–15% → 75 · 15–20% → 50 · 20–30% → 25 · >30% → 10

The methodology, in full

Methodology v1.2 adds a separate, inauguration-baseline affordability score for the president. Its formula, category weights and limitations are published on the card. The multi-pillar framework below remains distinct, with its own source dates, coverage and grade boundaries. Challenge any figure or rule via Corrections.

Principles

Cited-only scoring — every input links to a named, public source with a date. No source, no score: the component shows “insufficient data”.
Same ruler for everyone — the formulas do not know party colours.
Allegations are never scored as facts — they enter the corruption-risk ledger only as labelled risk factors, discounted by claim status (verified 1.0 · documented 0.6 · allegation 0.3 · disputed 0.15).
Sitting officeholders are graded “In Progress” — scores update quarterly and are never final mid-term.
Versioned & preserved — every re-score keeps the old scores with a changelog, so nobody can quietly re-grade a favourite.

The four scores

Overall composite weights: Economic 35% · Governance 30% · Corruption-risk 35%. The overall composite requires all 3 pillars to carry verified inputs. With fewer than 3 scored pillars, the card reads “Under Review — insufficient data”: no composite, no grade, no exceptions.

Economic — President

Indicator	Weight	Normalisation (0–100, higher = better)
Headline inflation (CPI)	30%	100 − (CPI − 5) × 5 — anchored at the 5% single-digit target; every point above costs 5
Food inflation (CPI, YoY)	20%	100 − (food CPI − 5) × 5 — same scale as headline; food & non-alcoholic beverages are the largest CPI contributor and the price signal households feel most directly
Public debt trajectory (YoY change)	20%	100 − (YoY debt growth % × 5) — debt growing 20%+ YoY scores 0
Real GDP growth (per-capita adjusted)	15%	(growth % − 2.4) × 30, capped at 100 — nets out ≈2.4%/yr population growth (UN WPP 2024 / World Bank); growth that doesn’t outpace population scores poorly; 5.7%+ headline growth needed for full marks
Unemployment rate	10%	100 − (unemployment − 3) × 8 — anchored at 3%
FX stability (official–parallel premium)	5%	premium ≤3% → 100 · 3–5% → 80 · 5–10% → 55 · 10–20% → 30 · >20% → 10 — interim single measure; 12-month depreciation trend to be added in v1.2

Economic — Governor

Indicator	Weight	Normalisation (0–100, higher = better)
IGR growth (YoY)	30%	YoY IGR growth % × 4, capped at 100 — 25%+ growth scores 100
Domestic debt trajectory (YoY change)	30%	100 − (YoY debt growth % × 5)
Salary / pension arrears	20%	100 − (months of arrears × 15) — zero arrears scores 100
Debt-service burden (% of budget)	20%	≤10% → 100 · 10–15% → 75 · 15–20% → 50 · 20–30% → 25 · >30% → 10

Governance — President

Indicator	Weight	Normalisation (0–100, higher = better)
Budget implementation rate	25%	Implementation rate % maps directly to 0–100 (e.g. 85% spent → 85)
Capital project completion	20%	Completion rate % maps directly to 0–100
Transparency signals	20%	0–100 rubric: timely budget publication 30 · published audit reports 30 · open contracting data 20 · FOI responsiveness 20
Insecurity — documented fatalities (as reported)	20%	100 − (documented deaths ÷ 20), clamped — every 20 documented deaths costs 1 point; 2,000+ deaths scores 0. Deaths are documented minimums from incident trackers, not official counts; no consolidated official fatality count is published
Corruption perception (TI CPI)	15%	CPI score maps directly (0–100, higher = cleaner). Perception-based: reflects expert and business surveys of public-sector corruption, not a direct measure of corruption volume

Governance — Governor

Indicator	Weight	Normalisation (0–100, higher = better)
Budget implementation rate	35%	Implementation rate % maps directly to 0–100
Capital project completion (Tracka)	30%	Completion rate % maps directly to 0–100
Transparency signals	35%	BudgIT State of States fiscal ranking position: (36 − rank) ÷ 35 × 100 — proxy pending a dedicated state-transparency rubric

Why these indicators

Food inflation → Economic: food & non-alcoholic beverages are the largest CPI contributor and the price signal households feel most directly.
Insecurity fatalities → Governance: physical security is the state’s first duty. Scored from documented incident-tracker minimums, labelled ‘as reported’, because no consolidated official fatality count is published.
TI Corruption Perceptions Index → Governance (not the ledger): the ledger scores documented cases and results; the CPI is a survey-based perception signal, so it sits with governance quality instead.
Subnational equivalents are deferred to v1.2 — no state-disaggregated tracker data meets the cited-only bar yet.

Corruption-risk ledger (inverted: 100 = cleanest)

Severity	Weight	Claim status	Multiplier
grandCorruption	25
procurementAbuse	15
abuseOfOffice	10
ethicsIntegrity	5
		verified	1
		documented	0.6
		allegation	0.3
		disputed	0.15

deduction per risk factor = severity weight × claim-status multiplier · credit per documented anti-corruption result = +3 (cap +9); directives earn zero · score = 100 − Σ deductions + Σ credits (floored 0, capped 100)

Grades

A (85–100) — ExemplaryB (70–84) — Above averageC (55–69) — AverageD (40–54) — Below averageF (0–39) — Failing

Sitting officeholders carry an In Progress badge — scores update quarterly and are never final mid-term.

What the editor must approve

v1.1 approved by the editor: lived-reality indicators added, credits restricted to results, 3-of-3 pillar rule, GDP formula fixed.
Still open: confirm the “In Progress, never final mid-term” rule for incumbents — or allow provisional grades.
Still open: launch scope — which presidents and governors get cards at launch.
Still open: state-level insecurity and cost-of-living indicators (deferred to v1.2 pending disaggregated data).

Changelog

1.2 · 2026-10-11 — Added a separate May 2023→May 2026 minimum-wage affordability comparison using nine NBS price/fare observations grouped into five equally weighted categories. Unchanged affordability scores 50; improvements and deteriorations both affect the result. The historical multi-pillar framework is retained separately.
1.1 · 2026-10-10 — Editor-approved rebuild: lived-reality indicators added (food inflation, insecurity fatalities, TI CPI); anti-corruption credits restricted to results only; overall composite requires all 3 pillars; GDP formula nets out population growth. Tinubu 84/B → 65/C on the new ruler.
1.0-DRAFT · 2026-10-09 — First published draft. 4 scores (Economic / Governance / Corruption-risk / Overall). Seeded: President Tinubu, Gov. Sanwo-Olu (Lagos), Gov. Makinde (Oyo).